Europe could lose up to 50% of its native population by 2075, Russia heading for 46-million decline

    Most public forecasts are too optimistic, assuming a massive rebound of fertility rates and covering up for population decline with immigration

    Europe is headed for a deep demographic contraction over the next half century: the share of the native population could shrink by 40–50%. For Russia, the projected loss by 2075 exceeds 46 million people.

    These conclusions were reached by the Telegram channel Data Distributor, which compiled data on fertility and migration estimates in major European countries.

    The topic of depopulation – and, in some cases, outright die‑off – is increasingly shifting from alarmism to hard numbers. The problem with many public forecasts is that they blur the picture: they build in large‑scale immigration and too boldly assume a rebound in the total fertility rate (TFR) from today’s 1.2-1.4 to 1.6-1.9 children per woman. As a result, the decline of the native core is masked by growth in migrant diasporas, while the recent dynamics of 2022-2025 – when fertility fell faster and almost everywhere – are ignored.

    To see what would happen if the current trajectory continues, Data Distributor used the most authoritative set of estimates – the UN’s World Population Prospects (summer 2024 edition) – in the most “grounded” configuration:

    • the “zero migration” scenario (assessing only the existing population, without future inflows);
    • the “medium‑low” fertility trajectory (a long‑term TFR of about 1.1-1.35, i.e., stabilization at today’s levels);
    • exclusion of ages 70+ (to remove uncertainty about future life‑expectancy trends).

    Under this assessment, in 2026–2075 European countries would see the following decline in their native population under age 70:

    • Russia: −46.6 million (−32%)
    • Belarus: −3.5 million (−52%)
    • Ukraine: −18.2 million (−61%)
    • Germany: −27.2 million (−41%)
    • France: −12.7 million (−25%)
    • United Kingdom: −15.9 million (−25%)
    • Poland: −14.4 million (−52%)
    • Spain: −18.8 million (−49%)
    • Italy: −23.4 million (−52%)

    Thus, if current trends persist, most of Europe’s key economies would lose 40-60% of their “native” population under age 70 within one to two generations. The three East Slavic countries alone – Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus – would together be short 68.3 million people. No extraordinary shocks are required for this outcome – only fertility remaining around 1.1-1.3 children per woman and migration not substituting for genuine natural reproduction.