China's population is declining for the 4th year in a row, fertility at a record low
The country lost about 3 million people in 2025 and now has about 1.4 billion. Birth rates are at their lowest since the founding of the People's Republic
China’s population declined for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, according to official data, underscoring the scale of the demographic challenge facing the country despite sustained government efforts to encourage higher birth rates.
Figures showed that the population of China fell to around 1.404 billion in 2025, a decrease of approximately three million people from the previous year. The country, once the world’s most populous, has now experienced several years of natural population decline as deaths continue to outnumber births.
The data highlight the long-term impact of past population controls, particularly the one-child policy that shaped family life for decades. The policy, which was formally ended in 2015, was widely criticised for its unintended social and economic consequences. In a 2016 assessment, the Brookings Institution described it as one of the most costly examples of misguided public policymaking.
Birth rates in China have now fallen to their lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, when Mao Zedong came to power. In 2025, there were 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the weakest figure on record. About 7.92 million babies were born during the year, a drop of 1.62 million, or roughly 17 per cent, compared with 2024. This reversed a modest and short-lived increase recorded the year before.
China was overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation in 2023, a shift that drew attention to its growing demographic vulnerability. Surveys and academic research suggest that many couples are delaying or forgoing parenthood due to the high cost of housing, education and childcare, as well as demanding work cultures and economic uncertainty. Similar trends are visible across much of East Asia, where low fertility has become a structural challenge.
Cultural factors may also have influenced decisions in 2025. The year corresponded to the Year of the Snake in the Chinese zodiac, which some traditionally view as an inauspicious time to have children. State media, including Xinhua, sought to downplay this belief, arguing that such associations are losing significance among younger generations.
China’s fertility rate is now widely estimated by researchers to be around one child per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1. The government last published an official fertility rate in 2020, when it stood at 1.3. Meanwhile, the population is ageing rapidly. About 323 million people – roughly 23 per cent of the population – are now aged 60 or above, a share that continues to rise as the working-age population contracts.
This demographic shift poses risks for economic growth as China seeks to transition from labour-intensive industries toward a more consumer-driven and technology-focused economy. While automation may ease some labour shortages, economists warn that sustaining growth with a shrinking workforce will be increasingly difficult. Official figures put economic growth at about five per cent in 2025, but many analysts expect a gradual slowdown.
Authorities have introduced a range of measures to support families, including cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child and tax exemptions for childcare services. However, experts say deeper reforms – such as stronger workplace protections for parents and broader social welfare changes—will be needed to significantly alter long-term birth trends.